UNITY OR SEPARATION? MACROECONOMIC POWER OF THE ORGANIZATION OF TURKIC STATES

Abstract

The Turkish states that gained independence following the Soviet Union's collapse began fostering relationships with Turkey, the remnants of the Ottoman Empire. Over time, these connections have strengthened across various domains, allowing Turks to assert themselves historically over a vast region. As many nations with shared interests have restructured, it has become increasingly crucial for Turks to gain influence in global politics. To promote extensive cooperation among Turkish-speaking countries, these nations established the Cooperation Council of Turkic-speaking States, which has now evolved into the Organization of Turkic States. It is essential to evaluate the current economic power of the Turkish states in the context of global politics and to address whether they are still separated or united. This study seeks to evaluate the macroeconomic strength of the Turkish Union using multi-criteria decision-making methods. Initially, the macroeconomic power of Turkey within the G20 (excluding the EU) was assessed using a baseline model. The analysis included the macroeconomic performance of the full members of the Organization of Turkic States in the first scenario, and both full and observer member countries (excluding Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) in the second scenario. Key indicators such as gross domestic product, total reserves, labour force, and the export-to-import ratio were utilized to evaluate the macroeconomic power of these countries. The CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) method was used to weight the criteria, followed by the EDAS (Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution) method to rank the countries' performances. Turkey was positioned 17th in the baseline model, while the Organization of Turkic States placed 12th in the first scenario and 10th in the second scenario. The Turkish Union is emerging as a more significant economic force compared to strong economies like the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, and South Korea. This study shows that the Organization of Turkic States presents an opportunity for Turkic nations to develop a robust and thriving society across various sectors, particularly in the economy, and to emerge as a sustainable economic force.